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gueroa may have had by clairvoyance an exact and detailed vision of places which he was not to visit until later： this is a pretty frequent and almost classical phenomenon； which； as it affects the realities of space； does not astonish us beyond measure and； in any case； does not take us out of the world which our senses perceive。 The field； the house； the hut； the loft do not move； and it is no miracle that they should be found in the same place。 But； suddenly； quitting this domain where all is stationary； the phenomenon is transferred to time and； in those unknown places； at the foretold second； brings together all the moving actors of that little drama in two acts； of which the first was performed some two and a half months before； in the depths of some mysterious other life where it seemed to be motionlessly and irrevocably awaiting its terrestrial realization。 Any explanation would but condense this vapour of petty mysteries into a few drops in the ocean of mysteries。 Let us note here again； in passing； the strange freakishness of the premonitions。 They accumulate the most precise and circumstantial details as long as the scene remains insignificant； but come to a sudden stop before the one tragic and interesting scene of the drama： the duel and its issue。 Here again we recognize the inconsistent； impotent； ironical or humorous habits of our unknown guest。
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But we will not prolong these somewhat vain speculations concerning space and time。 We are merely playing with words that represent very badly ideas which we do not put into form at all。 To sum up； if it is difficult for us to conceive that the future preexists； perhaps it is even more difficult for us to understand that it does not exist； moreover； a certain number of facts tend to prove that it is as real and definite and has； both in time and in eternity； the same permanence and the same vividness as the past。 Now； from the moment that it preexists； it is not surprising that we should be able to know it； it is even astonishing； granted that it overhangs us on every side； that we should not discover it oftener and more easily。 It remains to be learnt what would become of our life if everything were foreseen in it； if we saw it unfolding beforehand； in its entirety； with its events which would have to be inevitable； because； if it were possible for us to avoid them； they would not exist and we could not perceive them。 Suppose that； instead of being abnormal； uncertain； obscure； debatable and very unusual； prediction became； so to speak； scientific； habitual； clear and infallible： in a short time； having nothing more to foretell； it would die of inanition。 If； for instance； it was prophesied to me that I must die in the course of a journey in Italy； I should naturally abandon the journey； therefore it could not have been predicted to me； and thus all life would soon be nothing but inaction； pause and abstention； a soft of vast desert where the embryos of still…born events would be gathered in heaps and where nothing would grow save perhaps one or two more or less fortunate enterprises and the little insignificant incidents which no one would trouble to avoid。 But these again are questions to which there is no solution； and we will not pursue them further。
CHAPTER IV。 THE ELBERFELD HORSES
1
I will first sum up as briefly as possible； for who so may still be ignorant of them； the facts which it is necessary to know if one would fully understand the marvelous story of the Elberfeld horses。 For a detailed account； I can refer him to Herr Karl Krall's remarkable work； Denkende Tiere （Leipsig； 1912）； which is the first and principal source of information amid a bibliography that is already assuming considerable dimensions。
Some twenty years ago there lived in Berlin an old misanthrope named Wilhelm von Osten。 He was a man with a small private income； a little eccentric in his ways and obsessed by one idea； the intelligence of animals。 He began by undertaking the education of a horse that gave him no very definite results。 But； in 1900； he became the owner of a Russian stallion who； under the name of Hans； to which was soon added the Homeric and well…earned prefix of Kluge； or Clever； was destined to upset all our notions of animal psychology and to raise questions that rank among the most unexpected and the most absorbing problems which man has yet encountered。
Thanks to Von Osten； whose patience； contrary to what one might think； was in no wise angelic but resembled rather a frenzied obstinacy； the horse made rapid and extraordinary progress。 This progress is very aptly described by Professor E。 Clarapede； of the university of Geneva； who says； in his excellent monograph on the Elberfeld horses：
〃After making him familiar with various common ideas； such as right； left； top； bottom and so on； his master began to teach him arithmetic by the intuitive method。 Hans was brought to a table on which were placed first one； then two； then several small skittles。 Von Osten； kneeling beside Hans； uttered the corresponding numbers； at the same time making him strike as many blows with his hoof as there were skittles on the table。 Before long； the skittles were replaced by figures written on a blackboard。 The results were astonishing。 The horse was capable not only of counting （that is to say； of striking as many blows as he was asked）； but also of himself making real calculations； of solving little problems。 。 。 。
〃But Hans could do more than mere sums： he knew how to read； he was a musician； distinguishing between harmonious and dissonant chords。 He also had an extraordinary memory： he could tell the date of each day of the current week。 In short； he got through all the tasks which an intelligent schoolboy of fourteen is able to perform。〃
2
The rumour of these curious experiments soon spread； and visitors flocked to the little stable…yard in which Von Osten kept his singular pupil at work。 The newspapers took the matter up； and a fierce controversy broke forth between those who believed in the genuineness of the phenomenon and those who saw no more in it than a barefaced fraud。 A scientific committee was appointed in 1904； consisting of professors of psychology and physiology； of the director of a zoological garden； of a circus manager and of veterinary surgeons and cavalry…officers。 The committee discovered nothing suspicious； but ventured upon no explanation。 A second committee was then appointed； numbering among its members Herr Oskar Pfungst； of the Berlin psychological laboratory。 Herr Pfungst； after a long series of experiments； drew up a voluminous and crushing report； in which he maintained that the horse was gifted with no intelligence； that it did not recognize either letters or figures； that it really knew neither how to calculate nor how to count； but merely obeyed the imperceptible； infinitesimal and unconscious signs which escaped from its master。
Public opinion veered round suddenly and completely。 People felt a sort of half…cowardly relief at beholding the prompt collapse of a miracle which was threatening to throw confusion into the self satisfied little fold of established truths。 Poor Von Osten protested in vain： no one listened