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experiment。 Lastly； by the marks which his shoes left upon
pebbles of another kind； I was led to think that his shoes were
of fine silver。'
〃All the judges admired Zadig's profound and subtle discernment；
and the fame of it reached even the King and the Queen。 From the
ante…rooms to the presence…chamber； Zadig's name was in
everybody's mouth； and； although many of the magi were of
opinion that he ought to be burnt as a sorcerer； the King
commanded that the four hundred ounces of gold which he had been
fined should be restored to him。 So the officers of the court
went in state with the four hundred ounces； only they retained
three hundred and ninety…eight for legal expenses； and their
servants expected fees。〃
Those who are interested in learning more of the fateful history
of Zadig must turn to the original； we are dealing with him only
as a philosopher； and this brief excerpt suffices for the
exemplification of the nature of his conclusions and of the
methods by which he arrived at them。
These conclusions may be said to be of the nature of
retrospective prophecies； though it is perhaps a little
hazardous to employ phraseology which perilously suggests a
contradiction in termsthe word 〃prophecy〃 being so constantly；
in ordinary use； restricted to 〃foretelling。〃 Strictly； however；
the term prophecy applies as much to outspeaking as to
foretelling； and； even in the restricted sense of 〃divination；〃
it is obvious that the essence of the prophetic operation does
not lie in its backward or forward relation to the course of
time； but in the fact that it is the apprehension of that which
lies out of the sphere of immediate knowledge； the seeing of
that which； to the natural sense of the seer； is invisible。
The foreteller asserts that； at some future time； a properly
situated observer will witness certain events； the clairvoyant
declares that； at this present time； certain things are to be
witnessed a thousand miles away； the retrospective prophet
（would that there were such a word as 〃backteller！〃） affirms
that； so many hours or years ago； such and such things were to
be seen。 In all these cases； it is only the relation to time
which altersthe process of divination beyond the limits of
possible direct knowledge remains the same。
No doubt it was their instinctive recognition of the analogy
between Zadig's results and those obtained by authorised
inspiration which inspired the Babylonian magi with the desire
to burn the philosopher。 Zadig admitted that he had never either
seen or heard of the horse of the king or of the spaniel of the
queen； and yet he ventured to assert in the most positive
manner that animals answering to their description did actually
exist and ran about the plains of Babylon。 If his method was
good for the divination of the course of events ten hours old；
why should it not be good for those of ten years or ten
centuries past； nay； might it not extend ten thousand years and
justify the impious in meddling with the traditions of Oannes
and the fish； and all the sacred foundations of
Babylonian cosmogony？
But this was not the worst。 There was another consideration
which obviously dictated to the more thoughtful of the magi the
propriety of burning Zadig out of hand。 His defence was worse
than his offence。 It showed that his mode of divination was
fraught with danger to magianism in general。 Swollen with the
pride of human reason； he had ignored the established canons of
magian lore； and； trusting to what after all was mere carnal
common sense； he professed to lead men to a deeper insight into
nature than magian wisdom； with all its lofty antagonism to
everything common； had ever reached。 What； in fact； lay at the
foundation of all Zadig's argument but the coarse commonplace
assumption； upon which every act of our daily lives is based；
that we may conclude from an effect to the pre…existence of a
cause competent to produce that effect？
The tracks were exactly like those which dogs and horses leave；
therefore they were the effects of such animals as causes。
The marks at the sides of the fore…prints of the dog track were
exactly such as would be produced by long trailing ears；
therefore the dog's long ears were the causes of these marks
and so on。 Nothing can be more hopelessly vulgar； more unlike
the majestic development of a system of grandly unintelligible
conclusions from sublimely inconceivable premisses such as
delights the magian heart。 In fact； Zadig's method was nothing
but the method of all mankind。 Retrospective prophecies； far
more astonishing for their minute accuracy than those of Zadig；
are familiar to those who have watched the daily life of
nomadic people。
From freshly broken twigs； crushed leaves； disturbed pebbles；
and imprints hardly discernible by the untrained eye； such
graduates in the University of Nature will divine； not only the
fact that a party has passed that way； but its strength； its
composition； the course it took； and the number of hours or days
which have elapsed since it passed。 But they are able to do this
because； like Zadig； they perceive endless minute differences
where untrained eyes discern nothing； and because the
unconscious logic of common sense compels them to account for
these effects by the causes which they know to be competent to
produce them。
And such mere methodised savagery was to discover the hidden
things of nature better than a priori deductions from the
nature of Ormuzdperhaps to give a history of the past； in
which Oannes would be altogether ignored！ Decidedly it were
better to burn this man at once。
If instinct； or an unwonted use of reason； led Moabdar's magi to
this conclusion two or three thousand years ago； all that can be
said is that subsequent history has fully justified them。
For the rigorous application of Zadig's logic to the results of
accurate and long…continued observation has founded all those
sciences which have been termed historical or palaetiological；
because they are retrospectively prophetic and strive towards
the reconstruction in human imagination of events which have
vanished and ceased to be。
History； in the ordinary acceptation of the word； is based upon
the interpretation of documentary evidence； and documents would
have no evidential value unless historians were justified in
their assumption that they have come into existence by the
operation of causes similar to those of which documents are； in
our present experience； the effects。 If a written history can be
produced otherwise than by human agency； or if the man who wrote
a given document was actuated by other than ordinary human
motives； such documents are of no more evidential value than so
many arabesques。
Archaeology； which takes up the thread of history beyond the
point at which documentary evidence fails us； could have no
existence； except for our well grounded confidenc